Bitcoin Closes April Up 12% as Strategy's MSTR Posts First Positive Month Since July

Bitcoin ended April with double-digit gains contempt an uncertain geopolitical outlook and conflicting signals connected capitalist demand.

The starring crypto rallied conscionable nether 12% past month, marking lone its 2nd affirmative monthly adjacent since September 2025. Bitcoin's gains came amid tumultuous geopolitical conditions, including the extended struggle betwixt Israel, the U.S., and Iran, arsenic good arsenic the UAE's exit from OPEC, ending its 59-year membership.

Oil surged to $120 per barrel, with U.S. WTI crude hitting $110, arsenic the Middle East warfare exacerbated geopolitical tensions.

President Trump received a high-level briefing Thursday from Centcom commandant Admiral Brad Cooper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine connected caller subject options against Iran, according to the Independent.

Plans nether treatment see a “short and powerful” question of strikes connected Iranian infrastructure, a imaginable cognition to instrumentality power of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, and adjacent a peculiar forces ngo to unafraid Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.

The imaginable of diplomacy appears dim. Users connected prediction marketplace Myriad, owned by Decrypt's genitor institution Dastan, present spot conscionable a 17% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic gathering by May 15—down from 29% connected Thursday.

Despite the escalating tensions, Bitcoin held its ground. The bullish terms enactment was driven by sustained spot ETF inflows from U.S. investors, leveraged positioning by derivatives traders, and continued accumulation by Strategy.

Strategy, formerly known arsenic MicroStrategy, made four chiseled Bitcoin purchases successful April totaling astir $4.13 billion. The company’s banal posted its archetypal affirmative period since July 2025, surging 32% and breaking a nine-month losing streak.

Bitcoin is presently trading astatine astir $77,350, up 1.9% implicit the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

Cracks beneath the surface

Despite the terms gains, not each signals are bullish. CryptoQuant's evident request metric remained successful contraction territory passim April, signaling an lack of integrated spot demand.

“This is 1 of the clearest on-chain signals that terms gains are speculative alternatively than structural,” CryptoQuant noted successful its Thursday report.

Orkun Kilic, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, offered a antithetic lens. “ETF inflows and on-chain request measurement 2 antithetic aspects of Bitcoin's evolution,” helium told Decrypt. “For this rally to beryllium sustainable, that superior needs determination productive to go.”

The divergence betwixt terms and request highlights a marketplace wherever ETF inflows whitethorn beryllium masking weaker underlying conviction. A meaningful stock of caller ETF request whitethorn beryllium tied to cash-and-carry trades—institutions buying spot Bitcoin ETF shares portion shorting CME futures to seizure the spread—a market-neutral strategy that does not bespeak outright bullish positioning, Decrypt antecedently reported.

“Institutional involvement is rising, but not each of it whitethorn beryllium driven by semipermanent conviction,” Illia Otychenko, pb expert astatine CEX.IO, antecedently told Decrypt.

Kilic remains bullish connected the broader trajectory. “To maine it looks similar a budding bull market,” helium said. “If anything, the signals are much encouraging than before, with greater regulatory clarity and stronger organization support.”