Bitcoin ETFs Extend Longest Win Streak Since September, But Spot Demand Lags

Bitcoin ETFs person extended their longest inflow streak since September, with BlackRock's IBIT posting its champion play show successful six months, but on-chain information suggests the rally whitethorn beryllium built connected a location of cards.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their ninth consecutive time of inflows connected April 24, adding $14.45 cardinal to bring the streak's full to astir $2.1 billion, according to SoSoValue data. The 9-day tally marks the longest since September 2025.

Weekly flows archer a akin story. ETFs saw $823.7 cardinal successful inflows for the week ending April 24, pursuing back-to-back weeks of $996.4 cardinal and $786.3 million—three consecutive weeks of beardown organization demand. BlackRock's IBIT led the charge, posting $983 cardinal successful play inflows, its highest successful six months.

On-chain information cautions

While ETF request is intelligibly precocious and sustained, not each signals are bullish. The existent rally lacks a cardinal ingredient, according to Ki Young Ju, laminitis of on-chain analytics level CryptoQuant.

“Bitcoin is presently futures-driven. Open involvement is rising, but on-chain evident request remains nett antagonistic contempt ETF inflows and Saylor buys,” Ju tweeted Monday. “Historically, carnivore markets extremity erstwhile some spot and futures request recover.”

Illia Otychenko, pb expert astatine CEX.IO, echoed the cautionary note. “Recent terms enactment suggests abbreviated liquidations person played a important relation successful the rally, with unfastened involvement rising alongside price, which points to leverage contributing to the move,” helium told Decrypt. “That often signals astatine slightest portion of the rally has been driven by a abbreviated compression alternatively than wide spot request alone.”

The imbalance is disposable successful liquidation data. Since April 13, abbreviated liquidations person totaled astir $2.8 billion, compared to $1.8 cardinal successful agelong liquidations, per CoinGlass, a wide motion that bearish traders person been caught disconnected guard.

Because bearish traders proceed adding abbreviated exposure, Otychenko said determination is inactive country for further upside if much shorts are forced to unwind. However, for the rally to go sustainable, stronger spot demand, accrued on-chain activity, and broader information are necessary. Without those, a correction whitethorn follow.

Ju's informing highlights a akin disconnect.

Though ETFs are absorbing supply, spot buying crossed exchanges, wherever the bulk of trading occurs, is not keeping pace. That setup signals accrued leverage from futures investors alternatively than genuine spot accumulation.

A meaningful stock of caller ETF request whitethorn beryllium tied to cash-and-carry trades, successful which institutions bargain IBIT shares portion shorting CME futures to seizure the spread, Otychenko noted.

This strategy is market-neutral, meaning not each the inflows should beryllium viewed arsenic outright bullish conviction. In a cash-and-carry trade, institutions bargain spot Bitcoin ETF shares portion simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures connected CME, profiting from the terms quality careless of whether Bitcoin goes up oregon down.

Supporting Bitcoin's uncertain uptrend outlook is the antagonistic funding rate, a interest paid by traders to support parity betwixt spot and futures prices. A antagonistic backing complaint indicates investors are opening abbreviated oregon bearish positions.

Options markets' 25-delta skew is besides negative, hovering betwixt -2% and -5%, suggesting investors are paying a premium for downside protection.

“Funding rates are adjacent humanities lows, portion semipermanent holders are showing grounds levels of accumulation,” Otychenko said. “One of these 2 groups is apt to beryllium proven precise wrong. That benignant of hostility usually does not past long, and erstwhile it resolves, the determination tends to beryllium accelerated and decisive.”

Until spot request catches up, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto marketplace remains uncertain.

Bitcoin is presently trading astatine astir $77,800, down 0.2% implicit the past 24 hours, but up astir 3.5% implicit the past week, according to CoinGecko data.

Users connected prediction marketplace Myriad, owned by Decrypt's genitor institution Dastan, delegate a 75% chance that Bitcoin's adjacent determination could propel it to $84,000 first. However, investors stay bearish successful the abbreviated term, assigning a 42% chance that the starring crypto closes supra $78,000 connected Monday.