Morning Minute: Markets Tumble as Iran War Escalates

Morning Minute is simply a regular newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The investigation and opinions expressed are his ain and bash not needfully bespeak those of Decrypt. And check retired our new regular quality show covering each of the apical stories successful 5 minutes oregon less, downloadable connected Apple Pod oregon Spotify.

GM!

Today’s apical news:

• Crypto majors autumn arsenic Iran War escalates and ostentation comes successful hot; BTC -4% astatine $70k
• TradeXYZ secures licence from Dow Jones for S&P 500 index; HYPE concisely soars
• Congressmen accidental Clarity Act has to walk by mid-May oregon won’t get done
• Kraken delays IPO plans portion Citi downgrades Gemini to sell
• $2.2B successful FTX payouts to travel March 31

🏛️ Powell Holds, Bitcoin Folds

The Fed held rates astatine 3.50-3.75% arsenic expected Wednesday, but the harm came earlier the determination adjacent dropped.

February PPI printed astatine +0.7% month-over-month versus 0.3% expected, the hottest speechmaking successful months.

A large chunk of that is oil, and unfortunately, the lipid woes bash not look to beryllium down america fixed adjacent much escalations successful the Iran War successful the past time including strikes connected aggregate lipid and state facilities.

As for Powell’s commentary, helium was nary doomer by immoderate means. He took the hard enactment stance that ostentation needs to travel down earlier immoderate much complaint cuts tin resume. But helium dismissed immoderate mentions of stagflation, stating that the U.S. system is acold from facing stagflation, and commented positively astir the system overall.

Despite a neutral Powell, Bitcoin fell from $74K to ~$70,000 overnight, golden fell 5% to $4,700 and the Nasdaq finished down 1.5%.

Key Details

• Feb PPI: +0.7% MoM vs. 0.3% expected
• Powell raised 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%; dot crippled unchanged astatine 1 cut
• Bitcoin fell ~5% connected the session; Nasdaq -1.5%

📈 Hyperliquid Brings the S&P 500 Onchain

S&P 500 perpetual futures are present unrecorded connected Hyperliquid, and this 1 is official. Trade[XYZ] secured a licensing statement with S&P Dow Jones Indices to database the contracts, settling successful USDC and trading 24/7.

That means the S&P 500 scale volition beryllium tradeable with leverage connected Hyperliquid, possibly arsenic precocious arsenic 20x+.

It follows Hyperliquid’s earlier enlargement into gold, oil, and equity-linked perps (HIP-3), which present correspond 5.5% of full level measurement astatine astir $215M connected Sunday. The HIP-3 unfastened involvement is nearing $1.5B, up ~6x since December 2025.

The HYPE token concisely soared connected the news, reaching a caller section precocious implicit $43 earlier settling person to $41 amidst the broader crypto selloff.

Key Details

• S&P 500 perps present unrecorded connected Hyperliquid via licensed Trade[XYZ] contracts, settled successful USDC
• Index and ETF perps = 5.5% of Hyperliquid volume; gold, oil, and equity perps drove $991M successful 24-hour measurement during the Iran attack
• Hyperliquid launched a $29M Policy Center successful February to prosecute DC directly

🏛️ Clarity Act Has an Actual Deadline Now

After months of missed markups and a January blowup implicit stablecoin yield, the Clarity Act has a existent calendar.

Lummis told the DC Blockchain Summit Wednesday that the Senate Banking Committee volition clasp a rescheduled markup successful “the 2nd fractional of April.” Sen. Moreno sharpened the stakes: “If we don’t get the Clarity Act passed by May, integer plus authorities volition not walk for the foreseeable future.”

Congress goes location for Memorial Day recess May 21 and frankincense that is the existent cliff.

Senate Banking seat Tim Scott said Tuesday helium expects compromise connection connected the stablecoin output quality this week; Lummis added that thing sounding similar “banking merchandise terminology” is disconnected the table.

Sen. Gillibrand is inactive holding retired for an morals proviso barring members of Congress and elder medication officials, “including the president and the vice president,” from issuing oregon promoting crypto portion successful bureau - apt a cardinal sticking point.

Key Details

• Senate Banking Committee markup targeted for 2nd fractional of April; indispensable wide Senate level by May 21 recess
• Stablecoin output quality appears adjacent resolution; morals connection (targeting Trump household crypto ties) remains the unfastened fight
• Polymarket gives the measure a ~62% accidental of being signed into instrumentality successful 2026

🦑 Kraken Puts Its IPO connected Ice

Kraken has frozen its multibillion-dollar IPO plans, CoinDesk reported Wednesday.

The speech confidentially filed a draught S-1 with the SEC successful November, conscionable aft closing an $800M rise astatine a $20B valuation backed by Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and Tribe Capital.

But present they are waiting for marketplace conditions to amended earlier proceeding.

For immoderate IPO context: BitGo is the lone crypto steadfast to database successful 2026 truthful acold and is down 44% from its IPO price. And Citi conscionable downgraded Gemini from neutral to sell, arsenic the GEMI banal is down 80% from IPO.

Securitize says it inactive plans to spell nationalist successful Q2, but Kraken’s hold signals that adjacent the biggest players are speechmaking the room.

Key Details

• Kraken paused IPO aft confidential S-1 filing successful November; raised $800M astatine $20B valuation with Citadel Securities
• Only 2026 crypto IPO truthful far: BitGo, down 44% from listing price
• Kraken-linked SPAC KRAKacquisition already trading connected Nasdaq arsenic KRAQU

💸 FTX Pays Out Again with $2.2B connected March 31

The FTX Recovery Trust will distribute another $2.2B to creditors connected March 31, the 4th payout nether the exchange’s Chapter 11 reorganization plan.

Funds volition travel done BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer, with distributions expected to deed accounts wrong 1 to 3 concern days.

For those who person forgotten, the betterment payouts are astatine November 2022 plus prices, which means creditors who held Bitcoin astatine illness (~$20K) are receiving dollar-equivalent recoveries, not coins, astatine a fraction of what BTC is worthy today.

But astatine slightest they’re getting a amended introduction connected immoderate crypto rebuys than they were successful 2025.

Key Details

• $2.2B organisation acceptable for March 31; paid via BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer wrong 1-3 concern days
• Fourth payout nether the Chapter 11 plan; full creditor claims could transcend $16B erstwhile complete
• Payouts calculated astatine November 2022 valuations means Bitcoin holders receiving ~$20K/coin equivalent, not existent marketplace price

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are precise reddish up amidst the warfare escalation and ostentation concerns; BTC -4% astatine $69.7k; ETH -5% astatine $2,160; SOL -3% astatine $89
• HASH (+22%), RIVER (+12%), and QUANT (+8%) led apical movers
• Oil spiked to $98 aft aggregate vigor infrastructure targets hit; GOLD -6% astatine $4,696
• PPI came successful astatine 3.4% and supra expectations
• The SEC approved Nasdaq’s regularisation change allowing tokenized securities to commercialized connected the speech done the DTC aviator program, with the alteration taking effect for the duration of that pilot
• Algorand Foundation cut 25% of staff amid crypto-market weakness and broader macro uncertainty, portion saying it remains focused connected web growth
• Tempo Network mainnet launched arsenic a payments-focused layer-1 backed by Stripe and Paradigm, with a caller Machine Payments Protocol built for AI agents to transact beyond the limits of existing outgo rails
• Citi downgraded Gemini from Neutral to Sell, saying profitability is inactive years away; it chopped the banal terms people from $13 to $5.50, and GEMI fell much than 16% connected the day

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $163.5M successful nett outflows on Wednesday, breaking a 7-day inflow streak; the ETH ETFs had $55M successful outflows

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors were very red; DOGE -3%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -4%, TRUMP -5%, PENGU -7%, SPX -7%, FARTCOIN -6%
• Aliens (+400%), TripleT (+40%) and Lobstar (+35%) led apical onchain movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Zcash’s hashrate hit a caller ATH this week successful motion of increasing adoption
• Venice AI announced end-to-end encryption for lawsuit conversations
• Rekt Drinks’ Birb collab sold out in little than 1 hour
• Polymarket shared a caller IRL bar in Washington DC for “monitoring the situation”

🚚 What is happening successful NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat; Punks adjacent astatine 29 ETH, Pudgy -1% astatine 4.2 ETH, BAYC +1% astatine 5.2 ETH; Hypurr’s +4% astatine 448 HYPE
• Chromie Squiggles (+5%) led notable movers